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Atlantic/Gulf of Mexico/Caribbean

Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 040502
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical 
Storm Cristobal, located inland over southeastern Mexico.

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

Summary for Tropical Storm Cristobal (AT3/AL032020)

...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO...
 As of 4:00 AM CDT Thu Jun 4
 the center of Cristobal was located near 17.9, -91.3
 with movement SE at 2 mph.
 The minimum central pressure was 998 mb
 with maximum sustained winds of about 40 mph.

Tropical Storm Cristobal Public Advisory Number 11

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020  

000
WTNT33 KNHC 040844
TCPAT3
 
BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Cristobal Advisory Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020
 
...CENTER OF CRISTOBAL MOVING SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD OVER SOUTHERN
MEXICO...
 
 
SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 91.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...95 KM SE OF CIUDAD DEL CARMEN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 125 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES
 
 
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
 
None.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
 
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Campeche to Coatzacoalcos Mexico
 
Tropical storm watches or warnings may be required for portions of
the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico later today.  Interests there and
along the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico should monitor the
progress of Cristobal.
 
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
 
 
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Cristobal was
located over southern Mexico near latitude 17.9 North, longitude 
91.3 West. Cristobal is moving toward the southeast near 2 mph (4 
km/h), and this motion should continue this morning.  A turn toward 
the east and northeast is expected later today, and a subsequent
northward motion should occur through Saturday.  On the forecast
track, the center will move over the land mass of eastern Mexico
today and tonight. The center is forecast to move back over the
southern Gulf of Mexico Friday or Friday night, and over the 
central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday.
 
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Cristobal is expected to weaken to a depression during the next 
several hours.  Re-intensification is expected to begin on Friday.
 
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles (95 km)
from the center, primarily over water to the northwest of the 
center.
 
The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).
 
 
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Cristobal can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3, WMO header WTNT43 KNHC, and
on the web at https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml
 
RAINFALL: Cristobal is expected to produce the following rain
accumulations through Saturday:
 
Mexican states of Campeche, Quintana Roo, Tabasco, and Yucatan...
Additional 6 to 12 inches, isolated storm totals of 25 inches.
 
Mexican states of Veracruz and Oaxaca...Additional 5 to 10 inches.
 
Southern Guatemala and parts of Chiapas...Additional 15 to 20
inches, isolated storm total amounts of 35 inches dating back to
Saturday, May 30th.
 
El Salvador...Additional 10 to 15 inches, isolated storm total
amounts of 35 inches dating back to Saturday, May 30th.
 
Belize and Honduras...Additional 3 to 6 inches, isolated 10 inches.
 
Rainfall in all of these areas may produce life-threatening flash
floods and mudslides.
 
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are affecting the coast within
portions of the warning area.
 
 
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Advisory Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020  

000
WTNT23 KNHC 040843
TCMAT3
 
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020
0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAMPECHE TO COATZACOALCOS MEXICO
 
TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS THERE AND
ALONG THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF CRISTOBAL.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  91.3W AT 04/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 125 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  998 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  91.3W AT 04/0900Z...INLAND
AT 04/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  91.5W...INLAND
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 18.0N  91.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 18.7N  90.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 20.2N  90.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...150NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 22.1N  90.5W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 23.9N  90.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...150NE 150SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 25.8N  90.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE  60SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/0600Z 29.5N  91.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 34.0N  92.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  91.3W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT33 KNHC/MIATCPAT3...AT 04/1200Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Cristobal Forecast Discussion Number 11

Issued at 400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020  

000
WTNT43 KNHC 040844
TCDAT3
 
Tropical Storm Cristobal Discussion Number  11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL032020
400 AM CDT Thu Jun 04 2020

Satellite imagery and radar data from Sabancuy, Mexico indicate 
that Cristobal has resumed a southeastward drift and moved farther 
inland.  There is no data from near the core of the storm, so the 
maximum intensity is set to a possibly generous 35 kt based on 
continuity from the previous advisory and earlier scatterometer 
data that showed 35 kt winds over water to the northwest of the 
center.

The initial motion is a drifting 125/2 kt.  A slow eastward motion 
is expected today.  After that, southerly flow associated with a 
strengthening ridge over the western Atlantic and a developing 
mid-/upper-level trough over northern Gulf of Mexico should turn 
Cristobal northward with some increase in forward speed.  Later in 
the forecast period, a north-northwestward or northward motion is 
expected as Cristobal interacts with the trough, with most of the 
track forecast guidance bringing the system to the northern Gulf 
coast between 96-120 h.  The new forecast track has no significant 
changes from the previous track, and it lies near the various 
consensus models.

Cristobal should weaken to a depression in the next few hours as 
the center drifts farther inland.  Little subsequent change in 
strength is likely through 24 h due to much of the circulation 
remaining over water.  By 36 h, the global model guidance suggest 
that winds will increase over the Gulf of Mexico well northeast of 
the center, so the new intensity forecast calls for Cristobal to 
regain tropical storm status at that time.  From 48-120 h, Cristobal 
is forecast to interact with the trough over the Gulf of Mexico, 
which is likely to cause dry air entrainment and some shear.  The 
intensity guidance suggests these conditions will allow only 
gradual intensification, so the new forecast follows the trend of 
the previous forecast in showing a peak intensity of 50 kt before 
landfall on the northern Gulf coast.  
 
The global models indicate that Cristobal's wind field will expand
as the cyclone deepens over the south-central Gulf of Mexico.
Therefore, the size of the NHC wind radii have again been increased
primarily over the eastern semicircle at 36-72 hours.  Indeed, 
the models suggest that when the storm reaches the northern Gulf 
coast the worst conditions may occur at a large distance from the 
center.
 
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Damaging and deadly flooding was already occurring in portions 
of Mexico and Central America.  Cristobal is expected to produce 
additional extreme rainfall amounts through the end of the week. The 
heaviest additional rainfall is expected over far southern Mexico 
and portions of the Yucatan Peninsula, while also extending along 
the Pacific coast from Chiapas to Guatemala and El Salvador. This 
rainfall could cause widespread life-threatening flash floods and 
mudslides.  Refer to products from your local weather office for 
more information.
 
2. Even though Cristobal is inland, tropical storm conditions will 
continue along and near the coast of Mexico for a few more hours, 
especially over western Campeche, eastern Tabasco, and northern 
Chiapas states.
 
3. Cristobal is forecast to re-emerge over the southern Gulf of
Mexico on Friday and move northward over the central and northern
Gulf of Mexico over the weekend.  There is a risk of storm surge,
heavy rainfall, and wind impacts beginning over the weekend along
portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to the Florida Panhandle.
While it is too soon to determine the exact location, timing, and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Cristobal and ensure they have their hurricane plan
in place.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  04/0900Z 17.9N  91.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 12H  04/1800Z 18.0N  91.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 24H  05/0600Z 18.7N  90.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 36H  05/1800Z 20.2N  90.4W   35 KT  40 MPH...INLAND
 48H  06/0600Z 22.1N  90.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...OVER WATER
 60H  06/1800Z 23.9N  90.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  07/0600Z 25.8N  90.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 96H  08/0600Z 29.5N  91.5W   50 KT  60 MPH
120H  09/0600Z 34.0N  92.5W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
 
$$
Forecaster Beven

Tropical Storm Cristobal Wind Speed Probabilities Number 11

Issued at 0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020                                              

000
FONT13 KNHC 040844
PWSAT3
                                                                    
TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  11        
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL032020               
0900 UTC THU JUN 04 2020                                            
                                                                    
AT 0900Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CRISTOBAL WAS LOCATED NEAR    
LATITUDE 17.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 35 KTS...40 MPH...65 KM/H.                               
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
WIND SPEED PROBABILITY TABLE FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS                 
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KM/H)...                                  
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KM/H)...                                  
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KM/H)...                                  
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS OP(CP) WHERE               
    OP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (ONSET PROBABILITY)               
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        06Z THU AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 1 PERCENT                       
PROBABILITIES FOR 34 KT AND 50 KT ARE SHOWN AT A GIVEN LOCATION WHEN
THE 5-DAY CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 3 PERCENT.             
PROBABILITIES FOR 34...50...64 KT SHOWN WHEN THE 5-DAY              
64-KT CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 1 PERCENT.                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       06Z THU 18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             18Z THU 06Z FRI 18Z FRI 06Z SAT 06Z SUN 06Z MON 06Z TUE
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
DESTIN EXEC AP 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
MONTGOMERY AL  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
WHITING FLD FL 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
PENSACOLA FL   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   1( 4)
 
GFMX 290N 870W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   1( 8)
 
MOBILE AL      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   3( 8)
 
GULFPORT MS    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   5(12)
 
STENNIS MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   4(14)
STENNIS MS     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
BURAS LA       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)
BURAS LA       50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 890W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   9( 9)  11(20)   2(22)
GFMX 280N 890W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   1( 5)
GFMX 280N 890W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
JACKSON MS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   7(11)
 
NEW ORLEANS LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  11(12)   6(18)
NEW ORLEANS LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 910W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)  11(11)  16(27)   3(30)
GFMX 280N 910W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   6( 7)   1( 8)
GFMX 280N 910W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 
BATON ROUGE LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   8(19)
BATON ROUGE LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
MORGAN CITY LA 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  12(13)   7(20)
MORGAN CITY LA 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
ALEXANDRIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   8(15)
ALEXANDRIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
LAFAYETTE LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   9(10)   8(18)
LAFAYETTE LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
NEW IBERIA LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)  10(11)   7(18)
NEW IBERIA LA  50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)
 
GFMX 280N 930W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)  10(15)   3(18)
GFMX 280N 930W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   1( 5)
GFMX 280N 930W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
SHREVEPORT LA  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   7( 9)
 
FORT POLK LA   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   6( 6)   7(13)
FORT POLK LA   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)
 
LAKE CHARLES   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   7( 7)   6(13)
LAKE CHARLES   50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
CAMERON LA     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   9(11)   4(15)
CAMERON LA     50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
JASPER TX      34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   6( 9)
 
KOUNTZE TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)
 
PORT ARTHUR TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   5( 5)   5(10)
 
GALVESTON TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   5( 6)   2( 8)
 
HOUSTON TX     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
FREEPORT TX    34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
GFMX 280N 950W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   1( 6)
 
HIGH ISLAND TX 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)
 
MATAGORDA TX   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)
 
PORT O CONNOR  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)
 
GFMX 270N 960W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)
 
MERIDA MX      34  X   X( X)  10(10)   8(18)   1(19)   X(19)   X(19)
 
COZUMEL MX     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
PENSACOLA NAS  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   2( 7)
 
KEESLER AB     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   8(10)   4(14)
 
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER BEVEN

Tropical Storm Cristobal Graphics

Tropical Storm Cristobal 5-Day Uncertainty Track Image
5-Day Uncertainty Track last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 08:46:36 GMT

Tropical Storm Cristobal 34-Knot Wind Speed Probabilities
Wind Speed Probabilities last updated Thu, 04 Jun 2020 09:24:57 GMT

 

Eastern Pacific

Eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook

950 
ABPZ20 KNHC 040501
TWOEP 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 PM PDT Wed Jun 3 2020

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blake

There are no tropical cyclones at this time.

No tropical cyclones as of Thu, 04 Jun 2020 10:30:43 GMT